The dynamics and spread of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) in equatorial ecosystems under climate change: A comprehensive study through in situ and satellite observation, genomics, and mathematical model
IAS threatens biodiversity, ecosystem services, and productivity in equatorial ecosystems. According to the UN-CBD (Law No. 5 of 1994), IAS are species introduced and spread beyond their natural ranges, threatening the native ecosystems. This study investigates IAS-driven ecological disruption in two biodiversity hotspots in Indonesia: Baluran and Ujung Kulon National Parks. In Baluran, the invasion of Vachellia nilotica has transformed the native savanna structure, while in Ujung Kulon, Arenga obtusifolia jeopardises the critical foraging habitat for the endangered Javan rhinoceros. We propose an integrative framework for predicting and managing IAS dynamics under climate change. The project combines genomics to detect adaptive traits, satellite-based remote sensing to map habitat changes, and mechanistic modelling to forecast spatial-temporal invasion risk. Beyond site-specific solutions, this research advances regional cooperation by co-developing NbS with protected area authorities and key stakeholders. The project will develop a replicable IAS risk modelling platform, inform early warning systems, and provide strategic guidance aligned with the ASEAN IAS pathway and post-2020 global biodiversity targets. By bridging science, technology, and policy, this study enhances regional capacity for IAS prevention and control, contributes to achieving SDGs 13 and 15, and presents a novel model for cross-border ecological resilience in the face of accelerating environmental change.
